- Resilience in the Wake of Coronavirus Pandemic
- “A Word on Waste” – April Going Green practice
- New Colman Knight Facebook page
Resilience in the Wake of Coronavirus Pandemic
As discussed in our most recent Weekly Market Update video blog, we have experienced the best equity market rally since the 1974 rally—when the oil embargo ceased. Yet, unlike then, we do not feel like celebrating. Why is that?
First, the country is still in the throes of a major Pandemic. We hear about and witness new cases of Covid-19 and people dying, daily—a scene from the black plague.
Second, in almost every state in our country, we are locked down except for vital services. We are witnessing economic pain as people are forced to cease working (layoffs and furloughs), and businesses, such as restaurants, are forced to close or limit service to takeout—revenues which typically represent just 10%. We witnessed 16 million Americans applying for unemployment insurance in a 3-week period—more than 1 in 10 workers. Prior to our current reality, unemployment was hovering around 3%; now it is almost 11% and rising.
Third, being home bound is a constant reminder that we are not in full productivity. After the new phase of being home settles in, those who are not working may feel stir-crazy and a new kind of worry arises. Is this my new life? What will my life be post Covid-19? Meanwhile, the sector of the workforce deemed essential is met with the constant fear of being on the frontline, with deep concern about contracting and spreading the virus.
Despite the above, we have a shared experience of uniting to fight a common enemy. Prior to the pandemic, our country was in the midst of one of the most polarizing presidential elections in modern history. The election remains in our thoughts, but it has moved to the back burner.
Being in the unknown is excruciating for humans. Our ability to allow uncertainty to be present without reactivity is a new superpower. The two primary unknowns we face now are: one, how long will we be dealing with the pandemic without either a method to mitigate the severity of the disease or a vaccine to protect us against it, and two, when will the economy open up again?
Currently, over half a million people have contracted Covid-19 in the US, killing over 26,000 Americans in just a few months. We know of only a few methods to deal with the disease: find a vaccine, find medication to reduce its effects to a bad flu, or mitigate the spread until it is locally controllable. Until one of the above occurs, the US economy will operate at gross under-utilization, meaning large unemployment and economic harm.
Herd immunity requires anywhere from 40% to 90% of the population to be infected or inoculated with a vaccine. For the US, with a population of 330 million, 132 million to almost 300 million infected Americans before herd protection arises, and with a 2% death rate, that would mean anywhere from 2.6 million to 6 million American deaths. The numbers are staggering. But to prevent such a catastrophic loss, we are sacrificing our economic well-being. We should be congratulated for our collective resolve.
If we can mitigate the spread of the disease and open up the economy area-to-area, we may minimize losses. To do that, we need to test people significantly and often, and then, quarantine infected people as well as those people they were in contact with.
How the country will re-open looks to be shaping up around regions, with the governors of the northeast and west taking the lead. The exact nature of the roll-out of economy is unclear. The ability to hold major mass events may not occur until after the release of a vaccine, which could take a year or more. Otherwise, economic activity is beginning to show life, although a full resurrection will take time. Until then, the constant uncertainty adds anxiety and is beginning to wear. Fortunately, we are lucky enough to continue to serve you.
Conscious and skillful action was recommended and followed on your behalf as we navigated the financial opportunities these past months. The Coronavirus stock market melt-down occurred after we rebalanced your portfolios, so the downward drop in values to your portfolio was minimized. We took advantage of tax-loss harvesting and reinvested your portfolios to optimize current market dynamics. In the long term, your investment assets will benefit; so far, we have weathered the worst of the market downturns as designed.
Our best advice is to please stay strong, practice social isolation, and develop willpower, resourcefulness and resilience from deep inside, especially if there are others who depend on you for emotional or financial support. We are confident that our society will make it through this pandemic; we know our economic system (the underpinning of the markets) is resilient enough to withstand these shocks to its foundations. We weathered the 1973-74 oil embargo, the 1980s inflation recession, the 1987 black Friday, the dotcom bust and the Great Recession of 2008-9. We will certainly weather this economic crisis.
If possible, focus your energies on self-care by slowing down and resting. Rest and movement in nature strengthen your own physical and mental capacities. Then, if you are healthy, see who might need support from you. Tending to the sick, mourning those who were claimed by the virus, and offering your care in whatever way calls you gives you purpose and energizes healing in the collective. But first, protect yourself and your family. Allow us to sustain a competent view and monitor your financial situation, as we are very capable and amply equipped to do so, as demonstrated by this recent crisis.
Please know we do not take our responsibility lightly. Now, strength and courage and emotional maturity are incredibly valuable to our social order. We are all, every one of us, an important part of the daily struggle of humanity—of people we care about. Let that be motivation as we all slog through this pandemic, one day at a time, together.
Let us offer you our blessings and our hope—and most of all our support through this difficult time.
Year of Wealth: April Going Green 2020
A Word on “Waste”
This month, with Spring arriving and all its cleaning fervor, we were going to look at sorting and culling, keeping what’s most important, and what happens to all the stuff. How different is that in the Time of COVID? Some of us may have more time for this; some less. Some will have no patience at all for it; others will find this small act of decision-making to be calming.
With this virus in our midst, it has made us think differently about everything we touch, how often we use things, and what we need and how much of it. Reducing waste may seem impossible when we need single-use protection. We will use more protective coverings, and do much more hand-washing and clothes-washing, and disinfecting. We will use more chemicals and water and materials than perhaps ever before. But, in this moment, thoughtful single-use is care, it is safety, it is smart: waste is none of those things.
Be safe. We will learn from this experience and use it to shift our resources — in the future, not today. That is okay. It is necessary.
What about the things you can control? Can you try sorting as Spring cleaning? If you have the time this month, and want to sort stuff in anticipation of a post-COVID trip to rehome them, here are some thoughts…
For suggested action steps regarding waste, and more of sustainability expert Sarah Sutton’s oasis of calm and order, click below:
|
|
Colman Knight on Facebook
Introducing Colman Knight’s new Facebook page. Please visit, like and share, for an easy way to access our Weekly Market Update video blogs and other content.
https://www.facebook.com/ColmanKnight
