The video conversation posted below was recorded Friday, Dec. 3.
Dr. Goldmann has since offered updated information on the virus and the situation, as of Thursday afternoon, Dec. 9:
Dr. Goldmann (who would prefer you call him Don) realizes that the science and epidemiology of the Omicron variant are evolving rapidly. Here are a few updates to the video.
Omicron, not surprisingly, is being detected in more and more countries, essentially spreading globally. Experience in South Africa suggests that it is quite contagious, and in South Africa has displaced the Delta variant. Despite its ease of transmission, it is not yet clear if it will displace Delta in the US, but we should prepare for that possibility.
So the next question is, how severe are the infections caused by Omicron? So far, the data are encouraging. Most cases are quite mild, and there is no data yet to suggest that it’s more lethal – in fact, it may be less lethal. If this is borne out, we would have a “good” situation in which a lot of people get Omicron infection but are less likely to require hospitalization or die. In other words, a scenario that is more like influenza than the original virus and earlier variant. Time will tell, and most infections so far have been in younger people who in general have a lower risk of hospitalization or death.
The other important question is about immunity to Omicron. Many of the infections in South Africa, and a growing number elsewhere, are in people who have had COVID or have been immunized. In other words, the theory that the mutations in the spike protein would lead to some evasion of natural or vaccine immunity so far appear to be correct. Pfizer already has done limited studies in the lab that show that people who received two doses of its vaccine have considerably less protective antibody. However, the booster resulted in a level of antibody that probably will be quite protective against severe disease. (So get boosted!) One of the monoclonal antibody treatments also appears to have activity that should result in some effect, but we are waiting for a lot more information on all of the monoclonal antibody products, The Omicron mutations should not affect the new oral drugs from Pfizer or Merck.
Stay tuned!
We are thrilled to offer this compelling presentation by Dr. Don Goldmann about the Omicron variant of the Covid-19 virus. He shares his perspective with Rich and Knight Colman about the severity of the threat—on both our physical health, and the health of the economy.
Dr. Goldmann is an infectious diseases clinician and epidemiologist at Children’s Hospital and a Professor at both Harvard Medical School and Harvard TH Chan School of Public Health. He is also the Chief Scientific Officer, Emeritus, Institute for Healthcare Improvement. Please view his complete bio below.
In short, Dr. Goldmann’s assessment is the Omicron variant not as scary as the media may lead us to believe (never forget that media makes money on drama and fear!) However, there could be several different economic impacts from this new variant and new ones in the future. Including impacts in global supply chain, labor market pressure and uncertain monetary policy shifts.
He describes:
• What the Omicron variant is, how it is different, and how it works.
• The infectiousness of the variant (it may be more infectious).
• The deadliness of the variant (early indications are that it is not as deadly).
• The effectiveness of current vaccines on this variant (may be less effective, but get your booster).
• What to expect for future Covid vaccines.
• What to expect for future Covid variants.
Don Goldmann, MD:
Dr. Goldmann is an infectious diseases clinician and epidemiologist with experience along the entire translational research pathway, including vaccine development, clinical trials, observational studies, and implementation research. He is an alum of the CDC’s Epidemic Intelligence Service and helped develop a national healthcare-associated infection surveillance programme. He is Professor at Harvard Medical School and Harvard TH Chan School of Public Health. As Chief Scientific Officer, Emeritus at IHI, he designs and evaluates rigorous programs to improve healthcare quality. He explores innovative in-person and on-line teaching methods. He is lead faculty for a HarvardX MOOC on Practical Improvement Science, as well as Harvard TH Chan and Imperial College credit courses on this subject. He founded the ongoing Harvard-Wide Pediatric Health Services Research Fellowship Program. He conceptualized and delivered the Harvard General Education course on “Infectious Diseases, Pandemics, and Social Injustice. He is passionate about equity and enjoys mentoring younger people.
