The highly anticipated invasion of Ukraine has begun. The uncertainty that brings in the response from the West, and reaction to that response from Russia and possibly China as well, has caused the futures market to drop over 100 points on the S&P 500 (almost 3%) already, 800 points on the DOW (2.5%) and over 400 points on the NASDAQ (3.5%).
As we have often stated, the fear of the unknown creates tremendous downward volatility in the stock market. Assuming the US does not declare war on Russia, or Russia does not expand the invasion to a NATO nation, the actual impact on the World economy will be minimal. Assuming the war in the Ukraine does not turn into a greater conflict, the market should quickly recover, as we have witnessed many times in the past.
From a recent Forbes article which asked the question,
“Should You Sell Stocks In Response To A Conflict In Ukraine?”
“Looking at twenty-nine significant geopolitical crises beginning with the Second World War should help answer this question. On average, stocks are higher by three months after a geopolitical shock, and in sixty-six percent of the events, stocks were higher after only one month. The odds that stocks will be higher increases as time passes after the event. In addition, stocks sometimes jump sharply after a crisis, so getting out of the market could have significant opportunity costs. Short-term, there is downside risk from conflicts as stocks fell twenty-six percent in the month after Germany invaded France in 1940.”
The best action you can take currently is to keep to your current strategy and not panic. We will keep you informed as the situation in Europe unfolds.
Tiny Practices
While information meets our mind and worry thoughts, to calm our fears about market movements we cannot control, we offer a few “tiny practices” to engage. These are ways of skillfully responding to events. One or more may appeal to you, and we encourage you to give it a try, even if your mind clings tightly to fear.
The underlying truth is: You are OK. I am OK. We are OK, at least those of us residing in the US and outside of the Ukraine. Offered below are three simple practices to facilitate accessing our OK-ness even when we feel scared.
I’m OK and I feel scared
The way we calm the fearful thoughts in our brain is to feed it more information while sensing into a deeper truth.
Sit down and feel your bottom on the seat holding you.
Feel the soles of your feet on the ground.
Drop your shoulders.
Lift and open your chest.
Notice your breath.
Simply coming into your body is a calming move.
State out loud or to yourself: I’m OK.
Register that in this precise moment, you are, in fact, OK. Unless of course you are not… meaning a knife or car or tornado is approaching you. 🙂
State out loud or to yourself: AND, I feel scared.
Stating both truths allows your mind to realize that fear and OKness coexist. This truth integrates reality and is calming.
Continue to breathe, allowing your exhale to be longer than your inhale.
Stay in an open relaxed body presence.
On the inhale state: I’m OK.
On the exhale state: AND, I feel scared.
Continue for 5 minutes or when you feel ready.
Complete your practice noticing the difference in your state of mind.
I’m OK – On the Page
Modify the practice above by retrieving a notebook (or journal) and pen and write alternating statements. Specifically follow the instructions below. There is no need to make it pretty or add to worry about others seeing. This tiny practice is for you.
Write a sentence or two about feeling scared. What are you worried about? Describe in detail.
Skip a line and write: I’m OK.
Write another sentence or two about feeling scared. Describe in detail.
Skip a line and write: I’m OK.
Continue to alternate your worry sentences and your OK sentences until you feel complete.
Pause for a minute paying attention to your breath.
Read the statements that you have written out loud or to yourself.
Notice any changes in your state of mind.
Calm and Ease Meditation
For those who enjoy a meditation practice, consider engaging this 20-minute meditation from the late Zen Monk, Thich Nhat Hanh, who guides us to our breath for relaxation and release. Modern brain science is teaching us the importance of breath in calming our nervous system. Calming our nervous system is important to making clear, calm, decisions when we are activated in a fear response.
Calm – Ease | Guided Meditation by Thich Nhat Hanh
20 min.
